SSD Shortage Drives Stratospheric Revenues

Cropped version of the full chart used later in this post. Shows an extraordinarily strong "Up and to the right" growth.It’s earnings season, and nearly all of the major NAND flash makers, all of whom are leading SSD makers as well,  have reported astronomical revenues for the first calendar quarter of 2026.  (The only straggler is Kioxia, who won’t be reporting until the middle of May.)  The SSD Guy dug into these companies’ earnings announcements, and their numbers show that AI’s phenomenal capital spending is driving NAND and SSD revenues unlike any previously seen.

Take Sandisk for example, who just reported its earnings today. The company’s Data Center market segment achieved a 233% quarter-on-quarter revenue increase to $1.5 billion, leading it to grow in importance from 15% of total Sandisk revenues to 25% in a single quarter.  The company’s largest market segment, Edge, grew “only” 118% in the same period, to reach $3.7 billion.  These led to the company’s total revenues nearly doubling in a single quarter.

Then there’s Samsung, who reported yesterday.  By Objective Analysis’ estimate, Samsung’s NAND revenues, including SSDs, were $14.6 billion in 1Q26, which was more than the company’s combined DRAM plus NAND revenues in the same quarter last year.  The company’s DRAM revenues were more than double their NAND/SSD revenues last quarter at $37 billion.  (Note that Samsung doesn’t like to provide a detailed breakdown of their DRAM and NAND/SSD revenues, so analysts each devise their own way of splitting the company’s semiconductor revenues into those two businesses.)

Last week SK hynix reported first quarter NAND/SSD revenues of $7.6 billion, which was greater than their entire corporate revenues in 3Q23.  The company’s 1Q26 operating profit of $26 billion was larger than their 4Q25 total revenues, but this has more to do with DRAM than NAND/SSD.  Of the companies that have reported, SK hynix had the lowest NAND/SSD growth at 47% Q/Q, possibly because the company focused more effort on growing its HBM business.

Micron’s schedule is one month offset from its peers, so its earnings were announced a month ago.  The company’s NAND/SSD increased by 82% Q/Q in its most recently-reported quarter.

That leaves only Kioxia unreported, but it’s likely that company’s NAND/SSD revenues will have enjoyed a similar increase, which would put its 1Q25 revenues around $6-7 billion.

But charts can provide a much more impactful understanding of market performance, so what if we look at a chart?  The one below shows stacked NAND/SSD revenues, largely Objective Analysis estimates, for these vendors. Stacked column chart of quarterly NAND flash revenues for all leading vendors from 2021-2026. Particularly important is that the 4Q25 revenues totaled $21.8B and the 1Q26 revenues, with Kioxia omitted, are at $33.2 billion.The column on the far right, without Kioxia, reaches $33 billion, but if Kioxia hits our $6-7 billion projection, the market will reach $39-40 billion, even without YMTC and the smaller suppliers.

While champagne corks are probably popping at the SSD suppliers’ offices, the shortage that’s driving these high revenues is causing enormous problems for SSD purchasers, who can’t buy everything they want unless they pay much more than they have in the past.  This seems very unnatural: in the world of semiconductors, prices are supposed to continually go down, not up!  I discussed the reasons for this shortage in an earlier blog post: Why Are We Having an SSD Shortage?

Objective Analysis will be recapping this and the results of all leading memory suppliers when we brief our clients on first quarter earnings.  If you’d like to receive similar coverage, along with a good dose of strategic input, please contact us to explore the ways that we can help your company better understand the markets, their directions, and the things you can do to succeed in this constantly-changing business.

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